By Cyrus Kinyungu and Agencies由賽勒斯kinyungu和機構
As the world waits with bated breath to see which way Zimbabwe will go after President Robert Mugabe’s Zanu-PF party lost majority seats in parliament, analysts were already drawing parallels with Kenya.作為世界等待與bated一口氣，看看哪些方式津巴布韋將去後，穆加貝總統的民盟黨失去了多數席位，在議會，分析師們已經繪製平行與肯尼亞。
Although the size of population in the two countries differs, they both have 210 constituencies.雖然人口規模在這兩個國家不同，他們都有210個選區。
Like in Kenya, Zimbabweans voted for presidential, parliamentary and civic elections.想在肯尼亞，津巴布韋人贊成總統，議會和公民的選舉。
Map of Zimbabwe — Click PIC For Larger Image 地圖津巴布韋-按事先知情同意為放大圖片 
And like Kenya, the release of results in Zimbabwe has dragged on for days, heightening tensions between ruling party and opposition supporters.像肯尼亞，釋放的結果，在津巴布韋已拖了好幾天，提高之間的緊張關係執政黨和在野黨的支持者。
Zimbabwe had three presidential candidates — President Robert Mugabe (Zanu-PF), Mr Morgan Tsivangirai (MDC) and Mr Simba Makoni (independent).津巴布韋有三個總統候選人-總統穆加貝（民盟）議員，摩根t sivangirai（民運）和辛巴馬科尼（獨立） 。
Zimbabwe’s Movement for Democratic Change at some point threatened to release its own results following a delay by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission to announce the official results.津巴布韋的爭取民主變革運動在一些點，揚言要推出自己的結果之後，毫不拖延地由津巴布韋選舉委員會公佈的正式結果。
The opposition later announced it had defeated Mugabe in presidential and parliamentary elections, but said they would accept a runoff vote.反對黨稍後宣布，它已經打敗了穆加貝在總統選舉和議會選舉，但表示，他們將接受一個徑流表決。 MDC Secretary-General, Mr Tendai Biti, told a news conference that tallies based on totals posted at polling stations showed that party leader, Tsvangirai, had won 50.3 per cent of the vote, while Mugabe had 43.8 per cent.民運秘書長先生，天台宗biti新聞發布會上說，這符合的基礎上總計張貼在投票站表明，黨的領導人，崔凡吉萊，贏得了50.3 ％的選票，而穆加貝曾43.8 ％ 。
He appealed to Mugabe, 84, to concede defeat to avoid embarrassment.他呼籲穆加貝總統， 84 ，讓步的失敗，以避免尷尬。 But the government immediately rejected the MDC victory claim as “mischievous”.但政府立即拒絕了該委員會的勝利，聲稱為“惡作劇” 。
Deputy Information minister, Mr Bright Matonga, told journalists: “President Mugabe is going nowhere. 副新聞部長，議員，光明matonga ，告訴記者： “穆加貝總統是行不通的。 We are not going to be pressurised into anything.”我們不打算被壓成什麼“ 。
He said such victory claims would be regarded as a coup d’etat, insisting that the army and the police were fully behind Mugabe.他說，這樣的勝利，聲稱將被視為政變，堅持認為，軍隊和警察被全力支持穆加貝。
Four days after the election, the electoral commission is yet to release official results of the presidential poll.四天後，這次選舉中，選舉委員會尚未公佈正式選舉結果的總統大選。 Biti claimed that MDC tallies showed it had also won the parliamentary vote, taking 99 seats to the ruling Zanu-PF’s 96. biti聲稱民運符合表明，它也贏得了議會選舉，以99席，執政黨民盟的96 。
The latest official results gave Zanu-PF 93 seats to MDC’s 91 and five for a breakaway opposition faction. 最新的官方結果了民盟93席，到MDC的91和5為反對分裂的派系。
The prospect of a runoff has raised fears that the hiatus before a new vote would spark violence between security forces and militia loyal to Mugabe on the one side and MDC supporters on the other.前景一徑流提出了擔心該中斷之前，一個新的投票將引發暴力行為之間的安全部隊和民兵忠於穆加貝對一個方面和民運的支持者對其他。
Zimbabwean leaders had threatened during the election campaign to “go the Kenyan way” should they suspect foul play.津巴布韋領導人曾揚言競選期間“走出去肯尼亞的方式”應他們懷疑犯規發揮。
Last December, the Election Commission of Kenya delayed announcing the presidential poll results.去年12月，選舉委員會的肯尼亞推遲宣布總統選舉結果。 When it finally did three days after the December 27 election, the leading opposition party, ODM, claimed that their leader, Mr Raila Odinga, was ahead of President Kibaki.當它終於三天後， 12月27日的大選中，反對黨的領導， ODM的，聲稱他們的領導人，議員， raila odinga ，領先齊貝吉總統。
Then ethnic violence erupted in different parts of the country as members of some communities believed to have voted for the President were attacked and evicted from certain regions.然後種族暴力的爆發在該國不同地區的成員，有些社區，相信已投贊成票總統遭到攻擊和驅逐出某些地區。
In Zimbabwe, the Human Rights Watch, a US group, said in a report that the electoral commission was partisan towards Zanu-PF and that it lacked expertise and resources to run elections properly.在津巴布韋，人權觀察，美國一個小組，在一份報告中說，該選舉委員會的黨派對民盟和它缺乏專業知識和資源，運行的選舉。
Similar allegations had been made about ECK’s bias towards PNU, especially in the appointment of commissioners.類似的指控已經取得了約eck的偏向pnu ，特別是在任命委員。
Allegations of widespread irregularities characterised elections in the two countries, prompting the opposition to allege rigging. 指控的違規行為普遍的特點是選在這兩個國家，促使反對黨指稱操縱。
An MDC official said this week that leaked correspondence from the electoral commission showed it had asked for 3.3 million more ballots than the number of registered voters, including 250,000 extra postal ballots for soldiers and police. 1民運官員說，這個星期洩露函授，從選舉委員會表明，它已要求為330.0萬多張選票，比登記的選民人數，其中包括25.0萬額外的郵寄選票為士兵和警察。
A similar allegation had been made in Kenya, with ODM alleging that an ECK commissioner had gone to print counterfeit ballot papers.類似的指控，已經取得了在肯尼亞，與ODM的指一eck專員曾到打印偽造的選票。
Opposition candidates in both countries were psychologically prepared to win the election following favourable opinion polls that showed they were ahead of the incumbents.反對派候選人在這兩個國家分別有心理準備，以贏得選舉下列有利的民意調查顯示，他們提前任職。
A projection by Zimbabwe Support Network had suggested that Tsvangirai would win by 49.4 per cent, Mugabe 41.8 per cent and Makoni would trail with 8.2 per cent.預測由津巴布韋的支援網絡，曾暗示，崔凡吉萊將贏得由49.4 ％ ，穆加貝41.8 ％和馬科尼將徑與8.2 ％ 。
In Kenya, opinion polls had showed Raila leading with a slight margin against Kibaki, while ODM-Kenya’s Mr Kalonzo Musyoka would get about 10 per cent.在肯尼亞，民意調查顯示， raila領導與輕微保證金反對齊貝吉，而ODM的-肯尼亞的議員， kalonzo奧皮約將獲得大約為10 ％ 。
The two countries had three serious contenders each.這兩個國家有三個嚴重的競爭者。 And the elections became a tight two-horse race between the incumbent and the leading opposition figure.和選舉成為一個緊迫的兩馬之間的現任和反對派領袖人物。
Raila and Kalonzo were Kibaki’s ministers before they were sacked. raila和kalonzo被齊貝吉的部長會議之前，他們被解職。 In Zimbabwe, Makoni had been Mugabe’s Finance minister until a few months to the election.在津巴布韋，馬科尼已穆加比的財政部長，直到數個月的選舉。
Like in Kenya, pollsters’ projections in Zimbabwe were used to justify why Mugabe would lose.想在肯尼亞，民意調查的預測，在津巴布韋被用來證明穆加貝為何會失去。 
The election irregularities cited in Zimbabwe were nearly similar to those in Kenya.選舉違規行為列舉在津巴布韋幾乎是類似那些在肯尼亞。 In Zimbabwe, Biti said there was “massive” deployment of soldiers and police at most polling stations.在津巴布韋， biti說，有“大規模”的部署士兵和警察在大部分投票站。
Journalists reported heavy presence of the army and police. 記者報導，沉重的駐留軍隊和警察。
In Kenya, there were allegations that Administration Police officers were used as PNU polling agents to rig in its favour.在肯尼亞，有人指控說，當局的警務人員被用作pnu投票代理人鑽機在其贊成。
In both countries, the allegations were dismissed as “propaganda” by the opposition to win voters’ sympathy.在這兩個國家，這些指控被駁回， “宣傳”由反對黨贏得選民的同情。
Anxiety in the two countries during the vote counting was at its highest as the electoral commissions continued to announce trickling parliamentary results, yet citizens were more keen on the presidential results.焦慮在這兩個國家在計票是在其作為最高選舉委員會繼續公佈議會滴結果，但市民們更熱衷於總統的結果。
Indeed, it appears that like in Kenya, Zimbabwe’s parliamentary results were largely acceptable to the masses, while the presidential results may not be.事實上，似乎想在肯尼亞，津巴布韋的議會的結果，主要是群眾接受，而總統的結果未必。
Currently in Zimbabwe, anxiety is at its highest as it becomes apparent that a re-run between Mugabe and Tsivangirai could be unavoidable.目前，在津巴布韋，焦慮是在其最高的，因為它變得很明顯，一個重新運行之間的穆加貝和tsivangirai可能是無可避免的。 None of the two leaders had a clear lead by the time we went to press.沒有，兩國領導人有一個明確帶頭的時間，我們到新聞。
In Kenya, some politicians had calling for a repeat election between Kibaki and Raila following the stalemate.在肯尼亞，一些政界人士曾呼籲建立一個重複的選舉之間的齊貝吉和raila以下的僵局。
The delay in releasing the presidential election results in both countries was interpreted to have been a ploy to buy time to “cook figures” in favour of the incumbent.延遲釋放在總統選舉結果在這兩個國家被解釋為已伎倆購買時間，以“庫克的數字， ”在贊成現任。
Zimbabwe, like Kenya, also recorded differences in results announced on the ground and those at the tallying headquarters.津巴布韋一樣，肯尼亞，亦錄得的差異，結果公佈在地面上和那些在清點總部。
In Zimbabwe, the opposition has threatened to go to court to challenge some results, which they argue contradicted what was posted at polling stations.在津巴布韋，反對黨已揚言要到法院挑戰的一些結果，他們認為違背了什麼是張貼在投票站。
Perhaps noting the striking similarities with the Kenyan scenario, the government of Zimbabwe has warned the opposition not to release its own results, saying that could spark violence “of the kind seen in Kenya after last year’s elections”.也許注意到驚人的相似之處與肯尼亞的情況下，津巴布韋政府已發出警告反對派不要釋放自己的結果，說可能引發暴力“的那種看到在肯尼亞之後，去年的選舉” 。
Despite the striking similarities in the two countries’ elections, there are also glaring contrasts.儘管驚人的相似之處，在這兩個國家的選舉，也有明顯的反差。 In Kenya, the media covered the election in a relatively free atmosphere and they exposed some irregularities.在肯尼亞，媒體所涵蓋的選舉在一個相對自由的氣氛和他們暴露了一些違規行為。
In Zimbabwe, however, the media are under tight censorship, with most of the international Press covering the election from neighbouring countries.在津巴布韋，不過，媒體是根據嚴格的檢查，大部分的國際新聞，包括選舉，從鄰近國家。
Live coverage in Kenya was possible and events were beamed to Kenyans live as they unfolded.實況轉播在肯尼亞是可能的和活動播送到肯尼亞人的生活，因為他們展開。
But this is not possible in Zimbabwe. 不過，這是不可能的，在津巴布韋。
Unlike Zimbabwe, the military in Kenya remained neutral.不同的津巴布韋，軍方在肯尼亞保持中立。 In fact, the military had already rehearsed and waited either for the return of Kibaki or a change of guard ceremony.事實上，在軍隊已排練，等待無論是返回齊貝吉或改變衛隊儀式。
However, the Zimbabwean military was quoted saying it would resist a change of guard.然而，津巴布韋的軍事被引述說，它會抗拒改變，掉以輕心。 The military chief said he would not accept the presidency of any other candidate but Mugabe.軍事行政說，他不會接受總統的任何其他候選人，但穆加貝總統。
Unlike Kenya, election observers from the West were persona non-grata. 不像肯尼亞，選舉觀察員來自西方的人物非不受歡迎的。
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