Writes: Kap Kirwok

It’s only tyrants who live in mortal fear of people power

Every time I see images of brutality by a government — any — against its people, I am reminded of this quote.

Fear is a little word whose power and consequences is right up there with gravity and love. Like gravity and love, fear is indispensable for survival. And I don’t just mean human survival — I include specifically the survival of oppressive governments.

Oppressive governments live in mortal fear of fearless citizens. Consequently, they will try to instil maximum fear into the people. They do this through threats of deprivation or violence, and occasionally, use of deadly force. When such tactics fail, governments are thrown into panic. They then resort to increasingly desperate measures.

But if fearless citizens give oppressive governments sleepless nights, it is when such citizens unite and acquire arms that terrify them. Fearless, united and armed citizens are the stuff which political nightmares are made of. It is why governments will go to great lengths, in the name of law and order, to deny citizens the right to freely organise or own guns.

I do not think Kenya has reached the level of tension and paranoia that is the norm in repressive regimes. We are still a relatively free society. But there are times when it appears we are determined to tempt fate. There are those who say that, after our dalliance with chaos and death early this year, we are unlikely to go there again. We walked to the gates of hell, saw the horror of it, and turned back — in fear. We learned our lesson. Or did we, really?

Part of the reason it was easy to mobilise communities against each other during last year’s season of infamy was that the perceived ‘enemy camp‘ was easily identifiable — those seen, rightly or wrongly, as monopolising power and resources. In a coalition arrangement such as we now have, where almost every community is represented in Government, the ‘enemy camp‘ is not another tribe.

In the absence of discernible ideological fault-lines between the coalition partners, and the lack of a true opposition, the obvious differentiator becomes the glaring socio-economic dichotomy: the haves and have-nots; the rich and the poor; the privileged and the marginalised; the smooth fat cats versus the scrawny, skinny rats. It is a fault line just as dangerous as ethnic rivalry and enmity.

   The death toll in the disturbances in Kenya (December 2007) — numbered
   in the thousands    | More Pictures |

To reiterate: the thing that terrifies governments is the deadly combination of fearlessness, unity and arms in the hands of oppressed citizens. It is what puts many oppressive governments out of business.

Territorial supremacy

But what should really scare the daylights out of any oppressive government is something else: geography.

Consider just two places, Waziristan, Pakistan and Juarez, Mexico.

Waziristan is part of what is called the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, or Fata. Since Pakistan’s independence, Fata has virtually operated outside the control of Islamabad’s central authority. Fata has become a euphemism for the lost territories. Here, tribal warlords, Al Qaeda and the Taliban call the shots despite a sustained campaign by more than 80,000 regular and paramilitary forces of the Pakistani army. And yet this is an area of just 11,585 square kilometres ? seven times smaller than Kenya’s coast province. The reason: fearless, united and armed fighters aided by a friendly geography ? a rugged terrain with a porous border (with Afghanistan) through which arms freely flow.

The case of Juarez is even more interesting. This is a bustling Mexican city across the border from the Unites States city of El Paso, Texas. By some accounts, it is one of the most dangerous cities in the world, animated by a lucrative cross-border drug trade. Despite waves of massive crackdowns, often coordinated with US authorities, and sophisticated border surveillance, drug trafficking, murders and kidnappings continue unabated.

The Kenyan Election Violence (Dec. 2007) in Video

Juarez and Waziristan may appear remote from Kenya but their geographical situations are not. Kenya has long, porous borders with lawless Somalia and an insecure border with Ethiopia, on account of the Oromo Liberation Front and other bandits. The unpatrolled border with Uganda and Sudan means weapons can easily be smuggled into the country.

Geography.

It is the reason the so-called Sabaot Land Defence Force continues to defy extinction despite serious blows inflicted on it by the Kenya Army. Geography is the reason Mugabe’s regime has been lucky so far: no rugged borders with unstable countries where arms could easily flow in.

Beware of geography. Happy New Year!.

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About The Author: Kap Kirwok — Mr. Kirwok is based in the USA.
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