Columnist – John Sammon This little North Korean boy jeering at me with his fist at the Bridge of No Return at Panmunjom in 1972 is the reason North Korea continues to represent a threat to world peace.
The children were brought in on a bus from North Korea and toured the North Korean side of the truce village of Panmunjom. They were told propaganda and twisted facts to inflame their hatred of America. On their departure from the area back to North Korea, they not only made fists and shouted abuse, but pelted myself and two others at Checkpoint Three, called the Loneliest Outpost in the World, with little balls of refined sugar, given them to suck as candy.
I made a joke at the time that they sucked.
This could be a comic moment. I mean, it wasn’t exactly a page of glorious history in warfare to be pelted with candy by children. However, this is near the same spot where a mob of North Korean (grown up) soldiers attacked a party of Americans and chopped two officers to pieces, an ugly incident that has been labeled the “Panmunjom axe murder.”
What is important is that this boy is now about 45 years old and still believes the lies he was told and still hates America. He has no doubt taught that hatred to his own children. I’m not going to maintain America is blameless in the world or not guilty of wrongdoing. We’ve made our mistakes.
But this kid is brainwashed in a closed hermit society in which freedom is impossible, a regimented police state where the cult of the infallible leader (Kim Jong Il) is pervasive. Perhaps no other children anywhere in the world would react the way this boy is without plenty of indoctrination. Hatred is something that has to be nurtured and cultured like growing a plant in a pot.
If it takes root and grows, it will spread.
In our dealings with North Korea, we have to remember we’re dealing with an extremist state and a brutal dictatorship. It’s very difficult to reason with such people. To them, the world is whatever they say it is, and truth is however it can be bent.
To them, up is down, square is round, and black is white.
The Korean Peninsula is still the most dangerous place in the world, more dangerous than the Middle East because two huge armies face each other in an unresolved situation in which a spark or a miscalculation can set off a conflagration.
As you look into the face of this boy remember. They remain our committed enemy, and attempting to reason with them should take this into account.
Fox News’ Glenn Beck claims that parents will have to start homeschooling their children because of the “insidious” progressive movement. Ironically, Fox News’ chief NAZI has also said that progressives “don’t even really know the Founding Fathers,” just Communism and Nazism.
Appearing on Fox News — the Republican propaganda network, before the healthcare vote on Sunday, the “half” former governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin, tried to convince her followers that president Obama has no executive experience, therefore would not be able pass the healthcare bill.
Media Matters: Following President Obama’s first routine physical examination as president, the Drudge Report and right-wing blogs are seizing on a line from a memo from the chief White House physician about the results of the exam. In the “Recommendations” section of the memo, the president’s physician writes that Obama:
Continue smoking cessation efforts, a daily exercise program, healthy diet, moderation in alcohol intake, periodic dental care, and remain up-to-date with recommended immunizations.
This may seem like a rather benign list of doctor’s recommendations for any adult (smoker).
But not to the right-wing media. Instead, Drudge and some right-wing blogs are seizing on the line “moderation in alcohol intake” to suggest — based on absolutely no evidence — that the doctor asserted that Obama has been drinking too much and needs to moderate his alcohol intake.
Drudge used the phrase as his headline complete with a picture of Obama drinking a beer at a basketball game. [ READ MORE ]
One “Frenchie Moron,” Pierre Legrand exclaimed: Obama Drinks Too Much…This Explains A Lot! — as if he had just received First Hand information! LOL!
Limbaugh suggests doctor recommendation of “moderation in alcohol intake” means Obama drinks too much
Rush Limbaugh Calls Pelosi “Mullah Nancy Bin Pelosi” — “Mullah Nancy Bin Pelosi … is no different” than those who “convince all these people to put bombs on their kids“
One-Legged GOON Michael Savage: White House and newspapers hint at “Communist revolution” with “code words such as diversity” and “equality“
Beck says purpose of progressivism is to move “step by step” toward communism and fascism
Sean Hannity’s Möbius strip of Obama’s “radical associations” just came all the way around tonight when he wondered why nobody asked Obama during the presidential campaign if he spent time with Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan. [ READ MORE ]
Hannity has tried to link Obama to so many “radicals” even he can’t keep them straight
Carlson calls Bunning “fearless” for “taking a stand” in blocking unemployment extension
The Comedians Chime in
Comedian Jon Stewart: Senate After Dark — The Senate needs to get Jim Bunning out of the room if it wants to pass a 30-day extension of unemployment benefits.
Comedian Stephen Colbert: Health Care Marriage Counseling — Republicans and Democrats are like a husband and wife fighting over whether to have a health care bill baby.
By early 1950s, based on the level of economic development and geopolitical alignment, the World was divided into three Worlds: The First World, the industrialised, capitalist, countries of North America, western Europe, Japan and Australia under the United States’ sphere of political influence; the Second World, the former Soviet Union, the socialist counties of Eastern Europe, and China; and the Third World, Africa, Latin America and the rest of Asia and Middle East. For about 4 decades until 1991 the first two worlds had engaged in Cold War with military tensions, arms race, proxy wars, and economic and technological competitions. The Third World was mostly a battle ground for proxy wars between the first two worlds.
This global politico ? economic order was fundamentally altered following the 1989 revolutions in Eastern Europe that overthrew socialist governments and forced the Soviet Union to withdraw its forces. The collapse of communism in Eastern Europe was followed by the collapse of the Soviet Union itself and the creation of 15 independent states in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Following this, socialism also collapsed in less developed countries of Ethiopia, Cambodia and Mongolia.
With the end of the Second World, the concepts of the First and the Third Worlds became irrelevant. At present the world can be categorised into three economic zones: a) Advanced, industrialised countries (which includes all of the former First world countries); b) Emerging Market Economies,(rapidly expanding economies of China, Russia, Brazil, India, South Africa, Argentina ,Mexico, South Korea, and Indonesia); and c) Lesser-developed countries mostly in Africa and also in Asia and Latin America.
The next three decades will see major changes in world economic order with emerging markets poised to take over as global economic leaders. The following sections of this brief article investigate the trends in global labour and total factor productivity as engines driving rapid changes in global economic order.
2. Global output growth during the past 60 years
In 1950 the total GDP of India converted at Geary Khamis (GK) [1] PPPs in 1990 US dollar prices was US$ 222 billion, bigger than that of Japan (US $ 160.9 billion), France (US$220 billion), West Germany (US213.9 billion) and China (US$198.6 billion) all at constant 1990 prices. In terms of the size of total output, six decades ago, India was the third largest economy in the World after USA with total GDP at Geary Khamis PPP of US$ 1,455 billion, and United kingdom with total GDP of US $ 347.8 billion (of course excluding the former USSR with the total GDP of over US$ 510 billion) all at the 1990 prices.
During the next three decades the global economy expanded remarkably but at different paces in different major economies. By 1980 India’s total GDP nearly tripled to over US$ 637 billion while that of China grew more than four times to US$805.8 billion. During the same period, the total GDP of Japan grew almost ten times to over US$1,568 billion.
On the other hand, the total output of United States grew only three times to about US$4230 billion over the same period while the UK total output only doubled during the three decades between 1950 and 1980. Western Germany’s total output expanded by nearly four and one half times to US$946 billion while French total output expanded only three and one half times during the same period.
In fact, Japan’s total output exceeded that of each of India and China within a decade and one half after WWII while it exceeded that of each of UK and West Germany by mid 1960s. Therefore, by late 1960s Japan and West Germany emerged as the second and third world economic powers respectively after the United Sates.
However, growth trends for the next three decades ending in 2009 decelerated for most advanced economies. At the 1990 constant PPP prices, the US total output expanded only slightly more than 2 times at the end of 2009 from its 1980 level while that of Japan expanded only by 1.7 times for the same period. Similarly, total output in UK, Germany, and France expanded by less than 2 times during this period.
On the other hand, Chinese total output expanded nearly 11 times while that of India expanded five and one half times during the 1980-2009 period. Clearly, the growth moment started to decline in advanced economies since the early 1980s while it started to pick up in the current emerging market economies such as India, China, Brazil and later the Russian federation.
Based on the Geary Khamis PPPs at 1990 constant prices, in January 2010, China and India have become the second and third largest economies in the world respectively after the United States while Russia and Brazil are catching up with the UK and France. Japan and Germany are fourth and fifth largest economies in the world respectively.
Such rapid growth in some emerging market economies since the 1980s is attributed primarily to continuous improvements in labour and total factor productivity.
3. Labour and total factor productivity
The expansion of total output at any given point in time is strongly positively associated with the growth in labour and total factor productivity. For instance, the total output per person employed in the United States grew 1.7 times during the 1950-1980 period but only 1.5 times during the 1980-2009 period. Output per person employed expanded 3 times in France during 1950-1980 but only about 1.5 times during the 1980-2009 period while in UK there was no major difference in growth of output per employed person during the two periods.. In Japan output per employed person expanded six times during the 1950-80 period but only 1.6 times during the slow growth periods of 1980-2009. Thus, the rapid expansion in total output in advanced economies during the 1950-1980 period was directly linked with the rapid expansion in contribution of labour.
Then opposite is true for most emerging market economies. The, total output per employed person grew only by about 1.6 times in China during 1950-1980 but rapidly accelerated during the 1980-2009 period to about seven times. In India output per employed persons expanded only 1.3 times during the 1950-1980 period but it expanded 3 times during the 1980-2009 period. Thus the first three decades following the end of WWII, saw rapid growth in labour productivity in advanced economies while the past three decades since 1980 saw a sharp decline in labour productivity. This was accompanies by rapid growth in labour productivity in emerging market economies during the past three decades.
In spite of rapid growth in labour productivity in emerging market economies during the past three decades, in absolute terms, labour productivity in these economies is still lower than those of the advanced economies. The United States is still a world leader in total output/labour ratio. The GDP per persons employed in the United States in 2009 is the highest in the world, at about GK $ 66000 followed by Ireland GK$55000, Luxemburg GK$52000 and Norway GK$51000 all at the 1990 constant GK dollars.
Among the BRICs Russia leads in output per person employed in 2009 at about GK$18000 followed by Brazil, GK $ 13000 and China GK $ 11000 and India GK$ 7000, at 1990 constant GK dollars.
Labour productivity performance is critical for economic growth but its effect is usually short term. . The long term economic performance depends on total factor productivity (TFP) which reflects a country’s ability to use a broad range of skills, including its public policies and infrastructural development to improve living standards [2]. The TFP growth accounts for the changes in output not caused by changes in inputs. Its growth represents the effect of technological change, efficiency improvements, and our inability to measure the contribution of all other inputs. It is estimated as the residual by subtracting the sum of two-period average compensation share weighted input growth rates from the output growth rate as log differences of level which are known as Tornqvist indexes[1].
Rich countries are facing an increasing challenge from emerging economies not only in terms of labour productivity bus also in terms of total factor productivity .The growth in total factor productivity in most advanced economies between 1982 and 2008 measured as percent of Tornqvist index was mostly negative and marginal. For instance, between 1982 and 2008 total factor productivity in the United States grew only by 0.35 percent per year on average while in Japan it grew only by about 0.18 percent per year on average.
On the other hand, TFP grew much higher in emerging market economies. For instance, TFP grew by about 1.98 percent per year on average in China, and 0.87 percent in India for the period 1982- 2008 and by over 4 percent in Russia for the period 1995 – 2008.
It can be argued therefore that the 2008-2009 global financial crisis and the ensuing Great recession were not merely the result of short term bad bank behaviour, but the result of long term decline in total factor productivity in developed economies. Most of the developed economies have shown persistent trend of decline over the past thirty years while emerging economies have shown persistent sign of improvement in productivity and economic growth. The economic resilience of the emerging market economies during the 2008-2009 Great recession is the proof of their long term economic rigour.
4. The changing global economic order
Economist are predicting that during the next there decades the world economic order will change drastically and that China will take over United States as the world economic superpower. Robert Fogel [3], the winner of the 1993 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, argues that in 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. He states further that China’s per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union, and also much higher than that of India and Japan. Fogel forecasts further that although China will not overtake the United States in per capita wealth, its share of global GDP of 40 percent will be more than 3 times that of USA and more than 8 times that of the European Union after three decades.
The basic factors contributing to China’s faster economic expansion are: enormous investment in education leading to rapid increases in productivity; the continued role of the massive rural sector; currently underestimated economic progress; locally driven reforms and more open criticism than most think; and rapidly expanding consumerism tendencies [3].
The main factors for the relative decline of the European union will be declining fertility and consumer restraints.
However, not everyone shares such optimistic view about China’s economic future. Gordon Chang [4] argues that China will not achieve such massive expansion during the coming three decades. He argues that although China is making record investment in education, its education remains inappropriate for modern society. He further stresses that although China still has cheap labour, there is generally accepted projection that its labour force will level off in a half decade and then shrink.
Chang argues further that in spite of Fogel’s observations, Chinese communist party tolerates less criticism today than it did two decades ago and that economic reforms have stalled because China has progressed as far as it can within the existing political framework. He reiterates that a true market economy requires a rule of law, which in turn requires institutional curbs on government.
Chang rejects Fogel’s view on the role of consumer spending in China. He argues that historically, private consumption in China contributed about 60% of economic output; today it accounts for about 30% as the bulk of growth is driven by government’s massive investment on infrastructure. Change observes further that as much as Europe faces demographic challenges so does China; Chinese statistics show that the country’s birthrate fell 42 percent from 1990 to 2007, and government projections suggest that by 2025, nearly a quarter of China’s population will have celebrated its 60th birthday.
Finally, Chang states that China’s 1.4 trillion people will not earn a per capita income of US$85000 in 2040 for the main reason that the Earth cannot sustain such rapid growth, a clear reminder about China’s responsibility to curb carbon emissions to a sustainable level.
However, only time will tell whether Fogel or Chang will have accurately predicted the future state of the Chinese economy and hence the emergent global economic order.
This little North Korean boy jeering at me with his fist at the Bridge of No Return at Panmunjom in 1972 is the reason North Korea continues to represent a threat to world peace.
