Don Campbell Writes:

Why Ga. should be on GOP’s mind

ATLANTA — As Republican strategists ponder the road to resurrection after their party’s election debacle, I’d suggest they come to Atlanta to take a ride into the future, one that just might inject them with a dose of reality.

They should hire a tour bus and head northeast from Midtown Atlanta on Buford Highway, hard by Interstate 85, following it for several miles before turning south toward Stone Mountain on Jimmy Carter Boulevard. If they blocked out everything but the cantinas, taquerias, Asian flea markets, mercados, tofu houses, Thai video stores, dim sum diners, kimchi cafes and pawn shops, they might think they were in Queens, N.Y., or parts of Los Angeles. If they got lost and wandered into the parking lot of one of the largest Swaminarayan Hindu temples outside India, they might be even more confused. In fact, they would be in Gwinnett County, Ga.

GOP Not Feeling So Grand

Wedged between Atlanta’s close-in suburbs in DeKalb County, where the minority turned into the majority in the 1990s, and the leafy, sprawling enclaves of mini-mansions and estates to the north, Gwinnett County is one of the most diverse, polyglot jurisdictions in the country. More than 100 languages are spoken in county schools. A majority of students are minorities. But just 18 years ago, in the 1990 Census, Gwinnett was 90% white, rock-ribbed Republican and Exhibit A in the pantheon of suburban Sun Belt counties that supposedly would mold and sustain realignment to a permanent Republican majority.

Today, it is on the verge of becoming majority-minority, with Latinos, African Americans and Asians in near equal proportions, and the GOP vote is shriveling. Twenty years ago, George H.W. Bush got 75% of the presidential vote. Four years ago, George W. Bush got 66%. On Nov. 4, John McCain drew just 55%.

Taking the long view

“Enduring majorities” often turn out to be tenuous, but my bet is that Gwinnett County is not an anomaly. Twenty miles to the west, suburban Cobb County is undergoing the same transformation. McCain’s narrow win statewide in Georgia and his loss to Obama in Virginia and North Carolina are leading indicators for national population projections: In about three decades, whites will be a minority in the USA. In 15 years, a majority of children younger than 18 will be minorities.

So the Republicans, as I see it, have two options. The short-term — and shortsighted — response is to chalk 2008 up to a bad economy and an unpopular incumbent, repackage the same old political bromides and count on liberals to yank Barack Obama so far left that they’ll generate a voter backlash. Or they can take the long view and figure out how to survive and even thrive as the percentage of middle- and upper-class whites shrinks.

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Backlashes do occur. Bill Clinton and the Democrats experienced a sizeable one in 1994 after raising taxes and trying to force-feed nationalized health care. Four years later, House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Republicans faced a backlash of their own after Gingrich overplayed his hand in a budget showdown with Clinton by forcing a shutdown of the federal government.

I don’t dismiss philosophy or personality, but winning elections is a numbers game, and it’s foolish to think that even a revived party can thrive once its base becomes a minority.

Many years ago, I wrote stories about how Republicans were seriously committed to bringing blacks into their tent. The theory then was that blacks are conservative on issues such as gay rights and school choice. They are devout churchgoers. And as they moved into the middle class and out to the suburbs, African Americans would — chameleon-like — adopt the conservative economic philosophy of their new neighbors. It was a pipedream then, and it’s a pipedream now: Obama’s historic election has merely solidified the Democratic Party’s appeal to black voters.

An opportunity

Other large minority groups, especially Latinos and Asians, should be a more promising target for Republicans. Both groups are known for their close-knit family structures. Both have an incredible work ethic. Both thrive on entrepreneurship. If you doubt that, go to a Sam’s Club and observe who’s rolling out the flatbeds loaded with supplies to stock small shops and restaurants.

But the Republicans’ obsession with immigrants here illegally blinds them to the opportunity to craft a credible outreach strategy. McCain had a moderate approach to immigration reform but was nominated by a party of immigrant-bashers. He got just 31% of the Latino vote and only 35% of Asians.

It’s an absurd position for a party in decline. Most of the 10- or 11- or however-many-million illegal immigrants in this country aren’t going anywhere. Rather than whining that Democrats are protecting illegals because they see them as voters-in-waiting, the GOP should be fighting tooth and nail to get them legalized, to get every immigrant registered to vote, and to tirelessly recruit them to the Republican cause.

A political party on a collision course with demography has no choice but to embrace diversity. You can do the math, or you can eat, drink and shop your way up Buford Highway.

About The Author: Don Campbell — teaches journalism at Emory University in Atlanta and is a member of USA TODAY’s board of contributors. Don Campbell’s 30-plus years in journalism included nearly two decades as a Washington reporter, editor and columnist for Gannett Newspapers and USA Today. He also served as director of the Washington Journalism Center and of a fellowship program for journalists newly assigned to Washington. He taught journalism at Northwestern University, the University of Oregon and Arizona State University before he coming to Emory. Author of “Inside the Beltway: A Guide to Washington Reporting,” Don is also a freelance writer.

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