By通过 DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN 迪克莫里斯与张爱玲mcgann

Does Hillary Clinton really believe she can overtake Barack Obama among elected delegates?希拉里克林顿是否真的相信她能超越巴拉克奥巴马之间的当选代表？ No way.没有出路。 The math is dead against her and she’sa realist.数学是针对她的死亡和she'sa现实主义者。 Even after Pennsylvania, Obama still leads by more than 140 in elected delegates.即使在宾夕法尼亚州，奥巴马仍然领先超过140个，在选出的代表。 They’ll likely break even in Indiana and he’ll win North Carolina where one third of the vote is African-American.他们可能会打破，甚至在印地安那他将赢得北卡罗莱纳州的地方三分之一的选票是非裔美国人。 After that?之后呢？ If she wins Kentucky, West Virginia, and Puerto Rico by 15 points and they break about even in Guam, North Dakota, Montana, and Oregon, she’ll still trail him by at least 130 votes among elected delegates.如果她赢得肯塔基州，西弗吉尼亚，和波多黎各的15分和他们打破约，甚至在关岛，北达科他州，蒙大拿，俄勒冈州，她还是步道他至少有130票，其中民选代表。

Does she believe she can persuade super delegates to vote for her?难道她相信她能说服超级代表投票给她呢？ Again, probably not.再次，也许还不够。 Obama has steadily eroded her edge among super delegates and now they are almost tied among committed super delegates.奥巴马已逐步侵蚀了她的优势，其中超代表和现在他们几乎并列之间的承诺超级代表。 And the prevailing sentiment among those that remain is not to overturn the will of the voters.和当时的情绪那些仍然不是推翻会的选民。

So why is Hillary still running so hard? 那么，为何是希拉里仍在运行辛苦？ Why is she especially focused on pushing up Obama’s negatives? 为什么是她，特别是集中在推高奥巴马的底片呢？

Until the last vote is counted on June 3rd, we can chalk up her persistence to determination, courage and sheer obstinacy.直到最后投票是算对6月3日，我们可以粉笔了她的毅力，以决心，勇气和纯粹的一意孤行。 But if she persists in her candidacy after the last primary, we must begin to consider whether she has an ulterior motive.但如果她坚持在她的候选资格后，去年小学，我们必须开始考虑是否她别有用心。

Does Hillary want to beat up Obama so that he can’t win the general election in November, assuring McCain of the presidency so that she can have a clear field to run again in 2012?是否希拉里想击败了奥巴马，使他不能赢得换届选举在十一月，保证麦凯恩的总统，使她能有一个明确的领域，以再次运行在2012年？ Obviously, if Obama beats McCain, Hillary is out of the picture until 2016, by which time, at 69 years old, she might be too old to run.显然，如果奥巴马击败马侃，希拉里是出于对图片，直到2016年，到那个时候， 69岁，她可能太旧运行。 But if McCain wins, she would have to be considered the presumptive front runner for the nomination, a status which she might parlay into a nomination more successfully than she has been able to do this year.但如果麦凯恩获胜，她就要考虑将推定前线转轮提名，地位，她可能会Parlay的提名，成为一个更成功，比她已能够做到这一点。

Every day that she stays in the race and punches Barack Obama, she must realize that she is decreasing his chances of getting elected in November.每天，她停留在比赛和重拳巴拉克奥巴马，她必须明白，她是下降的机会，他的当选在十一月。 Each time that she waves the bloody shirt and says that only she is strong enough to fight the war on terror, she obviously raises doubts about Obama’s strength and leadership.每一次，她的血腥波恤及说，只有她是强大的，足以打反恐战争，她显然引起了怀疑，奥巴马的实力和领导制度。 Every time she criticizes him for not switching pastors or for saying downscale white voters are bitter, she raises issues that are very destructive to Obama should he win the nomination.每一次，她批评他没有开关或牧师说向下白色选民的痛苦，她提出的问题是极具破坏性，以奥巴马他应该获得提名。

When does fighting for the nomination in 2008 end and seeking to sabotoge Obama’s chances in November to keep her options alive for 2012 begin?时，是否争取提名，在2008年年底和寻求sabotoge奥巴马的机会，在11月继续她的选择，活着，为2012年开始？ Doubts about Hillary’s motivation are going to keep on growing with each inconclusive primary.怀疑，希拉里的动机是要保持增长，与每一个定论小学。 After she loses North Carolina and fails to carry Indiana by any significant margin (North Carolina has twice as many delegates as Indiana), people will begin to wonder out loud about why she is staying in the race.之后，她失去了北卡罗莱纳州和不进行印第安纳由任何重大的保证金（北卡罗莱纳州曾两次作为许多代表作为印第安纳） ，人们将开始怀疑大声约她为什么是留在了比赛。 And if she remains obdurate after the last votes are cast on June 3rd, it will become an increasingly accepted presumption that she is running a campaign of sabotage against Obama.如果她仍然顽固后，最后投票于6月3日，它将成为一个日益被接受的推定，她是在运行运动的破坏奥巴马。

There is a way to run without waging a scorched earth campaign.有一种方法来运行，发动焦土运动。 Mike Huckabee continued to fight for the Republican nomination until McCain reached the magic number to clench the battle and did not attack McCain.麦克huckabee继续争取共和党提名，直到麦凯恩达到魔术数字，以clench战斗，并没有攻击麦凯恩。 He waged a positive campaign and exercised his right to stay in the contest as long as it was undecided without hurting the party’s chances in November.他掀起了积极的运动和行使其权利，留在竞赛，只要它是未定没有伤害党的机会，在十一月。 Obviously, Huckabee could have attacked McCain and drawn more votes for his candidacy, but, in the interests of party victory, he chose not to do so.很明显， huckabee可以攻击麦凯恩，并制定更多的选票，为他竞选，但在利益的党的胜利，他选择不这样做。

Why isn’t Hillary making the same choice? 为什么不是希拉里作出同样的选择呢？

In 2004, it is pretty obvious that Hillary did nothing to help John Kerry beyond giving a speech at the convention and waging a token campaign on his behalf.在2004年，这是很明显希拉里并没有帮助克里超越给予了讲话公约和发动象征性运动，以他的名义。 Bill did even less.条例草案没有，甚至更少。 Their goal was obvious: they wanted Kerry to lose to Bush so that Hillary could run in 2008.他们的目标是显而易见的：他们希望克里失去了布什，使希拉里可以运行在2008年。 Is she playing the same game now?是她扮演同样的游戏，现在呢？ Only time will tell.只有时间会告诉我们。

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