By: Gwada Ogot
In Kenya, assassinations have been a regular feature of its succession politics. Kenyan scholar, Charles N. Mwaura in a study paper titled – ‘Political Succession and Related Conflicts in Kenya,’ notes that when elite interests broaden, violent conflict does manifest itself through assassinations of leading political figures.
The conflicts, he writes, often relatively restrain and characterize by competition among elites for political power and restrict within the status-quo. Assassinations and murder, he says, become alternative instruments of elite competition against those who threaten the ruling faction and he mentions Pio Pinto, Tom Mboya, Ronald Ngala, J.M. Kariuki, Robert Ouko and Alexander Muge, as key casualties in the first three decades of elite contest.
Tom Mboya was just 39 years old when he was shot dead by a lone gunman in 1969 while Josiah Mwangi Karuiki was barely 42 years old in 1975 when he was murdered by suspected state agents in horrid circumstances.
Public suspicion for their murders was largely directed at heirs-apparent within the Kenyatta government. Mboya and Karuiki emanated from Kenya’s two rival ethnic groups- the Luo and Kikuyu but despite this, both remained popular in each other’s ethnic backyards.
Several factors however eradicate murder as a plausible action today. Above the fact that the nation’s newly promulgated constitution bars any presidential candidate with pending criminal charges from contesting elections, the ongoing actions against senior members of the status quo by the International Criminal Court at The Hague and the unfolding events in the Middle East and North Africa also contribute.
Playlist: Kenya — Political Assassinations [ MORE FROM YOUTUBE ]
Independent Kenya Leaders(Early sixties) – From Left: Paul Ngei, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Jomo Kenyatta,
Tom Mboya and Njoroge Mungai

So in the fourth decade, play in the Kibaki succession manifests through Courts of Law, Media and Parliament. The variation is that while the assassinations of the first three decades’ were executed as early pre-emptive actions, the fourth decade is typified by new media character assassination and criminal proceedings. Yet, in spite of this, murder cannot be completely ruled out in the Kibaki succession.
In his study of Conflict in Africa, T. William Zartman, identifies attempts by post-colonial regimes to self-consolidate and to control national political space as a primary cause of conflict including external forces with vested interest in who captures state power.
The chilling assassination of Dr. Robert Ouko in 1982 provides sufficient illustration. Dr. Ouko was found murdered hardly a month after a trip to America, during which he was supposedly identified by American government officials as a possible successor to then president Moi.
Currently, several presidential contenders face serious criminal allegations- most from the status quo, in effect validating Mwaura’s contention of an exclusive contest. The main alter of sacrifice has been the internet including the traditional media, courts and of course parliament.
Hon. Moses Wetangula, the immediate former Minister for Foreign Affairs and new leader of the Ford Kenya Party, was compelled to step down from office after serious corruption accusations were tabled against him in parliament. Regardless of this, formal charges have yet to be instituted against him.
Another contender, Eugene Wamalwa, the 43 year old Member of Parliament for Saboti constituency and younger brother to former vice president, the late Michael Wamalwa also faced mention in parliament on allegations of drug dealing just as he was trying to kick start his presidential bid.
Likewise, secondary aspirants like Jazz player Joseph Hellon and his friend turned foe Quincy Timberlake haven’t been spared internet sleaze and court action either. Roundly shred on the internet, Hellon was in addition humiliated in a much publicized house eviction while Timberlake was locked up for days before being arraigned in court as a suspected illegal alien. Both actions followed their launch of the Placenta Party and declaration to contest the presidency.
However, the matter of William Ruto, 44 and 48 years old Uhuru Kenyatta, son to Kenya’s independence leader, Jomo Kenyatta attracts particular mention. Both face criminal charges at The Hague and therefore stand technically barred from contesting the presidency in 2012 unless acquitted. Besides, there is the historical irony of Uhuru’s case owing to events surrounding his father’s succession and the potential impact of their trials on the Kibaki succession.
Rightly or wrongly, both fault presidential rival and status quo compatriot Prime Minister Odinga for their predicament, in circumstances they directly link to the Kibaki succession.
Messrs. Ruto, Uhuru and Raila share a knotty history since the 1998 cooperation and subsequent merger between the Kenya African National Union (KANU) and the National Democratic Party (NDP) in 2002. All could lose out on the presidency in related but nevertheless completely different circumstances courtesy of their present quandary.
Whether by design or default, with the exception of Uhuru Kenyatta, all the Kibaki succession casualties hail from the larger Western Kenya. The issue here is not the guilt or innocence of these individuals- for that is the courts business-but rather the indication of a regional consolidation stratagem when beamed from Kenya’s fractured political and ethno-geographic fabric.
Likewise, frequent accusations from a house of representatives littered with men and women of straw, raises eyebrows, principally in regard to the current Rota of who is tied first and next for guillotine.
As the Kibaki succession date draws closer, the message, especially to young presidential aspirants is clear- Beware!
Yet in practice, admonition hardly counts where political ambitions are concerned and more candidates are expected. As Marcus Garvey once fittingly opined- ‘Men who are in earnest are not afraid of consequences’- and the trillion dollar question is- Who next?

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The CIA appears to have recruited the flamboyant minister and former trade unionist in a heavily funded “selective liberation” programme to isolate Kenya’s founding President
Secret letters, also declassified, further show that Mboya had a particularly tumultuous relationship with Mr Mbiyu Koinange, a minister and power broker of the Kenyatta presidency.
Both a credible nationalist and an economic conservative, Mboya who was popularly known as ‘TJ’, was ideal for CIA’s purpose. The main nationalist hero and eventual chief of state, Kenyatta, was not considered “sufficiently safe” owing to his initial deep socialist leanings, the dossier said. 
Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki and his newfound friends, (clockwise) Chinese President Hu jintao, Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi.





















































